Climate change reduces frost exposure for high-value California orchard crops

Frost exposure is a particular challenge for cultivating perennial crops, whose adaptive capacity to weather and climate impacts limited. Irrigation common means of mitigating damage, but draws on limited water resources, costly, energy intensive. Here we examined the projected impact change incidence frost temperatures during coldest winters, defined by 98th percentile cool season (November–April) hours, under both early- mid-21st century time periods, as compared contemporary conditions, across range threshold temperatures. We focused three high-value orchard crops – almonds, avocados, oranges assess effects below crop-specific critical development phases, what these temporal changes in may mean requirements damages. Across periods temperature thresholds, declines California's agricultural regions, with an average reduction 63% century. The majority almond orange acreage saw 50–75% reductions mid-century, while avocado experienced >75% fewer hours. This yielded attendant use costs, growers highest counties save more than 50,000 acre feet $4.2 million electricity costs pumping per year, collectively. Although increase growing crop demands, pest pressures, have overall net-negative agriculture, potential accompanying mitigate damages allow reprioritize some their long-term decisions around farm management.